Stockideas

Twilio Inc
(NYSE:TWLO)
Twilio Inc

Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud communications platform that enables developers to build, scale, and operate customer engagement within software applications in the United States and internationally. Its customer engagement platform provides a set of application programming interfaces that handle the higher-level communication logic needed for nearly every type of customer engagement, as well as enable developers to ...
Founded: Mar 13, 2008
Full Time Employees: 6,900
CEO / Co-Founder: Jeff Lawson 
CFO: Khozema Shipchandler 
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Internet Content & Information
Stock price: $48.93 (-0.18%)
Twilio Q1 2021 Earnings Results
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on May 05, 2021

https://s21.q4cdn.com/963721274/files/doc_financials/2021/q1/Q1'21-Earnings-Presentation_FINAL.pdf

Earnings Highlights:

  • First quarter total revenue of $590 million, up 62% year-over-year. And this beats the consensus by 57m.
  • First quarter total revenue dollar-based net expansion of 133%
  • More than 235,000 active customer accounts, as of March 31, 2021

Q2’21 guidance:

  • Total revenue of $591 million to $601 million, including Segment, up 47% to 50% year-over-year
  • Non-GAAP loss from operations of ($27) million to ($22) million
  • Non-GAAP loss per share of ($0.16) - ($0.13)

This is actually pretty impressive. dollar-based net expansion rate 133% means if you, as a customer, spends $1 this year you would be spending $1.33 next year. This is an indicator of how sticky their service is to their clients. But this is expected because they're the company that sends you a sms message every-time you login to Instagram or Facebook or some websites (for authentication or some other purposes) and you would need to use this service more in a remote working / stay-at-home environment. And as those apps / companies grow you would see more usages for Twilio services. Also, that's been true for the past like 10 years for Twilio.

The price drops 5% in after-hour trading to around $320.00. And that puts them to a p/s ratio of around 31. Their valuation is still expensive but considering they're a company that's growing 60% a year that means if they're able to maintain the current growth rate the forward p/s ratio would be at a reasonable 31/1.6^3=7.5 if the price remains the same, and that would be cheap.

https://i.imgur.com/TkVqWkk.png

https://i.imgur.com/LwJlK9V.png

$TWLO


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2020 SaaS review
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on Jan 03, 2021

2020 is an interesting year for SaaS companies. Some of them went public and gained huge success in the stock market. Some of them continued their rally from 2016-2019 and have another great year. Some of them have greater success than the others because of their business models in the work-from-home environment. And there's a common thing for those SaaS companies, that is: those companies probably developed something people want.

The following is a list of the top 15 SaaS performers in our database in the last 250 days as of December 31, 2020. https://i.imgur.com/xL1w2F2.jpg

Some of the companies here are getting a lot of attention this year. Terminologies like Zoom Fatigue even appeared in the second quarter. It seems everyone was talking about Zoom at some point. And that's reasonable because Zoom is the clear winner in this video conferencing space. They keep your company operational by providing you a smooth video call user experience for your employees and your clients. There are literally companies built on top of Zoom calls that provide you remote journey experiences, and they do great because of Zoom and Covid.

https://i.imgur.com/KWx3Ea2.png

Cybersecurity is also something to worry about for companies in 2020. Intuitively, when companies are working remotely it would be harder for companies to safeguard their infrastructure. That's when companies like CrowdStrike or Zscalar or Okta come into play. Okta help companies manage their employees' access identities. Zscalar and CrowdStrike protect your web infrastructure using technologies to derive insights from your data and protect your infrastructure in real-time or near real-time.

Also when a lot of people are working remotely you'd expect Internet usage to go up. Cloudflare is a CDN company that help websites serve their requests fast. Fastly is also doing similar things in the video CDN space and helps companies like TikTok serve their videos. And as more people spend more time on their mobile devices those companies also do well. And to support those web requests you need companies like Twilio to send you SMS messages or phone calls, without Twilio you might not even able to login to your apps.

Also when people are staying at home people have more time to get creative. So maybe people start selling stuff on Shopify or Etsy or Pinterest or create websites on Wix. And at the same time, you have marketing companies like Facebook or TradeDesk or Digital Turbine to help you advertise your stuff on mobile devices. The success stories for those SaaS companies are inter-connected.

There are many other interesting SaaS companies that are not mentioned above. They are not in the top 15 maybe because they're not directly related to the stay-at-home trend, but that doesn't mean they're less interesting. As a software engineer, I have to use application monitoring services, database services, image compression and processing services, mailing services... and many others. This is what makes a modern software company functional. And as long as your company is growing you would continue to add and look for the best services for your company. And when more companies are becoming software companies I can imagine those SaaS companies to have a great future ahead.

A few things in common here for the companies on the list:

  • They grow REALLY fast. A lot of the companies on the list are growing 40-80% a year.
  • They all have really high gross profit margins.
  • They're traded at a very high valuation. A lot of them have a p/s ratio of 40-60.
  • The majority of them are losing money.
  • They don't pay dividends.

A possible explanation is that there are no clear winners in the space they're operating in, so they're doing whatever it takes to make sure they win in the long run. And of course that means they cannot afford to pay dividends. Also they're all traded at astronomical levels of valuations maybe because they have high profit margins, and the future for those companies are expected to be good.

Take DocuSign for example. They're one of the pioneers in e-signature. But e-signature is some sort of niche market. You may come up with another e-signature solution with a small team but by the time you have the solution in place you might already be spending millions achieving zero revenue while DocuSign might grow revenue another 40%. In the end there's just not enough market share for you to survive. So it would not be a good idea to copy DocuSign business model, this makes DocuSign (and all the SaaS companies) unique in a way.

If you look back at Amazon anytime in the past 20 years you'll see it's always traded at high multiples. It is still traded at high multiples today but would anyone complain that Amazon is too expensive? Probably not. Because now we know Amazon is dominating in any spaces they're operating in, we just couldn't see it 20 years ago. So maybe there's a correction between winning and being expensive and that's why all the cloud stocks are expensive because there's a chance all of them are dominating in their space in the next 5-10 years.

But, of course, being expensive does not mean the company would be successful eventually. But if you want to look for something good in the next 5-10 years there's a chance it's on the list but you just don't know it yet.

$ZS $DBX $ZUO $AYX $DOCU $SMAR $DOMO $SVMK $AVLR $TTD $PCOM $NOW $WDAY $PD $WORK $ZEN $TEAM $VEEV $CLDR $SHOP $FSLY $TWLO $ADBE $AAXN $CRM $OKTA $GOOG $DT $ZM $SPLK $WIX $COUP $MDLA $LPSN $APPN $EPAY $AKAM $APPS $FIVN $BL $PANW $PFPT $CRWD $DDOG $NET $HUBS $NEWR $APPF $RNG $ESTC $BILL $GDDY $DCT $ECOM $PLAN $SNOW $SUMO $FROG $ASAN $JAMF $ADSK


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Twilio to Acquire Segment, the Market-leading Customer Data Platform
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on Nov 21, 2020

https://investors.twilio.com/news/news-details/2020/Twilio-to-Acquire-Segment-the-Market-leading-Customer-Data-Platform/default.aspx

The transaction will accelerate Twilio’s growth with a combined total addressable market of $79 billion, bringing Twilio one step closer to achieving the company’s vision of becoming the world’s leading customer engagement platform trusted by developers and companies globally.

$TWLO


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Signs of the market topping
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on Aug 08, 2020

There are signs of the market topping this week. A few signs I am looking at are $GRPN, $CVNA, $JMIA, $STMP, and high growth names $TDOC, $TWLO, $DDOG lead me to believe this market is due for big corrections. So I trimmed my positions greatly this week.

Jumia ($JMIA) rallied 400% in less than a month (July 7, 2020 to Aug 4, 2020) and on Aug 3 alone their price jumped 35%. Bear in mind that their price dropped 95% from high of $48.00 to $2.15 within a year. Generally, for a company with a great future, the share price would not drop 95%. People are saying this company going to be Amazon in Africa and but I can't see that happening to be honest. If there's going to be an Amazon in Africa it's going to be Amazon. Also when you go to forums everywhere even forums in Taiwan you can see people talking about $JMIA. This shows how speculative the market is.

Carvana ($CVNA) is a company that tries to sell you a car in a vending machine. They announced their earnings on Aug 6 and they missed both their revenue and earnings estimate. And then the stock price jumped 28%. If you ask people do you want to buy a car from Tesla or from a vending machine I'm sure the majority of people would choose the first one. So why is the price up significantly on misses? No one knows, not even the investment banks.

https://i.imgur.com/y9iYTB7.jpg

Stamps.com ($STMP) offers you postage solutions. They gave good earnings numbers and on Aug 7 their price went up 18%. They're up now because of the COVID situation that helps many small businesses to facilitate their e-commerce solutions. But this is a company that does not have a good future. Maybe their company is undervalued now but once this COVID thing goes away their stock price would drop greatly because they simply do not have paths forward from here.

Groupon is another service that is getting less and less traction. And on Aug 7, 2020 their price jumped 50%. The same argument with the stamps.com rally I do not think this is sustainable.

Now let's take a look at growth companies. A lot of interesting things happen this week. Companies like $DDOG, $TDOC, and $TWLO announced their earnings or mergers and those are really good news for the company. They beat the consensus estimates and raise their guidance and is going to dominate whatever their do in their space. And their price drops regardless. Teladoc merged with Livongo so in the future you do not need to go to a hospital with minor symptoms. Do they have a good future ahead? The answer is very likely yes. Same for DataDog and Twilio they continue to be the dominant player in their niche so before their crash their price was already up 1000% in a few years. So maybe all the good things is already priced in and now it's time for corrections to happen.

What does it mean when the best things in the market like $TDOC, $DDOG, $TWLO that continues to grow at 40-70% per quarter gets beat and when companies do not have a future to rally? That's a sure sign something is off with the market. I do not see myself as part of the market.

$QQQ $DIA


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Twilio earnings
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on Aug 04, 2020

Twilio q2 revenue is $400.8 million, which represents a 46% increase yoy. Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate is 132%. They have 200,000 active customer accounts, up 24% year-over-year. Those numbers are fantastic.

Q3 revenue guidance is $400 million. And they expected to issue more shares in q3. Maybe that's why their stock price is dropping after-hour.

https://i.imgur.com/k88uSq9.png

Twilio is a service for companies to send sms messages to you. This is useful when companies like Facebook or Whatsapp or Okta needs to send you an sms message. And since people spend more time on mobile apps and stay at home now you'd expect their usage to get higher in the medium to long run.

Those earnings numbers are great. Maybe there's a chance for this to go a bit lower in the next while.

long $TWLO


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Earnings this week
By: christopher lazy guy   💬 13   
   on Aug 04, 2020

https://i.imgur.com/V5d3z2l.jpg

$CHGG $TWLO $FSLY $ROKU $SQ $LVGO


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TWLO
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on Nov 01, 2019

Earnings report is not really good. The stock went down 10% today. In their previous earnings call they talked about Flex and Sendgrid and implied they would be good for their revenue, and it doesn't seem to be happening so far.

In fact I tried to use both Twilio and Sendgrid myself for software development. Twilio is alright, but when I tried to use Sendgrid as this site's mail sending service but it didn't work out for me. Their service is really terrible. To see people in your mailing list you have to click on something, and wait for it to generate a link and send to your email, and then open the email to click another link and then you will download a file (I think it's an excel) and only after that you can see your lists. To me it's the dumbest thing possible a software team can do as opposed to simply go fetch a good old query like everyone else in the world does.

But ya maybe whatsapp and Facebook or others still need twilio to send codes for you. So maybe it's still a good company just it gets bigger and there would be more challenges for them as well.

Neutral $TWLO


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