Guardant Health, Inc
Guardant Health, Inc

Guardant Health, Inc., a precision oncology company, provides blood tests, data sets, and analytics in the United States and internationally. The company offers Guardant360, Guardant360 CDx, and GuardantOMNI liquid biopsy-based tests for advanced stage cancer; and GuardantINFORM, an in-silico research platform that comprise a clinical-genomic liquid biopsy dataset of advanced cancer patients. It is also developing tests from its LUNAR program for...
Founded: 2013
IPO date: 2018-10-04
IPO price: $19
Full Time Employees: 1,373
CEO / Co-Founder: Helmy Eltoukhy 
CFO: Michael Bell 
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Diagnostics & Research
Next Earnings Date: 2023-02-23
Stock price: $53.78 (+2.62%)
Insiders are buying
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on Nov 25, 2021

We have 2 insiders buying stocks of their own company yesterday at dip. $gh is up 15% in today's trading session.

Guardant Health
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on Feb 26, 2020

The earnings came in Monday after-hour. The results are not terrible with quarterly revenue growth around 90% and 2019 yearly revenue growth around 180%. The guidance is not great, it guided a 20% revenue growth this year. But this is expected because they haven't get FDA approval yet, and since their revenue is very high in 2019 you won't expect a revenue growth that's as good as this years'. It's not like you can magically get revenue as a non-software company.

Also they have a history of guiding lower and beat the estimates. This is happening in the past few quarters.

But the stock dropped 15% at a point yesterday. Let's see if it would rebound in the near term. I am not worried about the prospect of the company but maybe the valuation is indeed a bit high. We will see.

long $GH

Things that I regret in 2019
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on Jan 04, 2020

I made a few mistakes that I think is worth mentioning in 2019. But hey it's a learning process maybe anyone can discuss and learn something.

$GH. They announced good results in their liquid biopsy tests. And their price went up from $40 to around $105 very quickly. And then it dropped back to $60. And then go to $110 area again before coming down to $60 area again. I am invested in this company since Feb and unfortunately I didn't sell at the highs. I even added a little when it dropped back from $110 to $80 so my total investment result for this is much less than 100%. After July they're kind of in the middle of the whole Softbank-WeWork fiasco and I am not sure if that negatively impacted their share price in any way. So even when they have one of the best earnings calls in the entire market, the price seemed to be priced-in or even inflated already. They still have a high EV/S ratio of about 30-60 now. And I think it's about 20x 2021 EV/S. So maybe I am just being too optimistic about this company that's all. Their buzz word is "Conquer cancer with data". So it seems too good to be true.

$WORK. Slack is one of the apps I have to use everyday at work. It's also quite popular here in North America so I thought it's a good long term investment. At the time of investment I didn't know Microsoft has a product called Teams that's competing with them. So when the news came out that Microsoft Teams daily active user surpassed theirs and the price dropped like 5-10% after the news. And I was totally unprepared. Luckily I don't have it anymore after the news. Also, the insiders are selling almost everyday. It's really laughable how you'd want to compete with Microsoft when your product is only a desktop app and does nothing really special.

$Z. I have been looking at Zillow for years. I was looking to invest in Z since the a year ago when they announced they're gonna enter the buy and sell housing market. And the story feels right because they have scale, also they're the go to app for you to view the listings nearby. Their competitor, Redfin, is also really good, but in my opinion they're just not as popular. Zillow revenue basically accelerated this year but the price seems to be not going anywhere. So I was counting on the technicals to drive down the price more so that I can buy this company. And surprisingly the price double-bottomed in October and immediately moved higher 50%.

$TSLA. Elon purchased another 20m worth of Tesla in May. And it dipped to around $180 area. I was waiting for it to drop more because even though it's relative obvious they're on track of becoming no.1 car companies in the world, their stocks are just lagging in the past few years. Also the bears are constantly talking about shorting Tesla so I was hoping for the price to drop more so that I can buy. In retrospect if you know a company is going to do well then maybe the best idea is to just buy and wait for it to move again whenever there's a chance.

There are many more smaller regrets that I'd like to share. But these are the more decisive ones. Maybe this is how you get punished in a bull market but who knows maybe this waiting pays off in a financial crisis. We'll see.

Guardant Health Q3 Financials Result
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on Nov 08, 2019

Great company. Q3 revenue 60.8mil is up 181% yoy. EPS -0.14 is higher then consensus -0.37. The 3rd time they beat and raised the guidance.

What does 181% mean? That means if you have 1 revenue you would have 2.8 next year and 2.8 * 2.8 = 7.84 two years from now, assuming they can maintain this growth rate. And they haven't got their FDA approval on Guardant360 yet. You can do the math.

60 mil revenue means the forward P/S ratio is at around 6b / 4 / 60m = 25. For a small-cap, biotech, disruptive company with actual revenue and 100% increase in users, 25 seems to be moderate or low to me.

It's also worth noting that they have 0 debt. They have lots of cash. And they seem to me that they're close to profitability. And they claim they have a TAM of like 35b. This continues to make me believe it's a company I want to hold for longer term, I am usually not a big fan of pharmas they make you feel sad a lot of times.

I am still invested in this company since early February and I haven't seen any reasons to sell it other than their slightly higher valuations. Insiders also stopped selling lately and maybe today's call is why. $GH

By: moodyzhan Senior Financial Consultant   💬 6   
   on Oct 01, 2019

GH drops almost 45% from the peak of 113 to the support trendline around 61-62 in a short period of time. I believe there are two main reasons for the drop. One is on May 22, GH issued about 4.5 million new shares at $ 71 to raise capital for its operation. The lock-up period for these shares is just expired, which means some of the insiders who are satisfied with current profit may be selling. The other reason I believe is the market has heavy selling from Softbank, Franklin, and Orbimed, and all those big financial institutions stakeholders. However, once the dust settles it will be the fundamentals to move the price again. In Q2, GH revenue increased 178%, which is 50% above the expectation. Gross margin raised from 48.6% to 68.8% and operation numbers are also outstanding. JP morgan rates it a "buy" after reviewing Q2 performance. And I think now it almost touched the previous low and the trading vol increase is a good BUY signal so GH looks to me like a solid long position in the long run.

By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on Sep 08, 2019

Imagine in the future you use a few drops of blood to test if you have cancer or recurrence. You'd never have to cut open your chest to get a sample issue and have complications and go through all the sufferings. To me this is the definite future that we're heading. Guardant is the leading player in the liquid biopsy field at this time and it accumulates the most amount of samples and adopted by a few thousand doctors even before FDA approval, if this is not a scam I can imagine it having a great future ahead.

Earnings transcript
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on Aug 07, 2019

I spend a little time reading their earnings transcript and I had to say the numbers are far greater than I expected. Q2 revenue growth is around 180% yoy. Earnings are also beat by 0.22 and it almost feels like the company would be turning into profit very soon. I used to thought only software companies can scale horizontally and grow this fast, and being one of the fastest growing non-SAAS company my feeling is they're on the right track and might be up to something even bigger. I guesss I'll hold on to this position for a while. There are also many other good news on their LUNAR and ECLIPSE program and according to them they expect to have the 1st patient enrolled in the ECLIPSE program. Also they're doing AI and with an edge in the sample size I hope they can continue to lead in this cancer detection field.

feels like a good time to sell
By: barbapapa lazy guy   💬 25   
   on Jun 06, 2019

the EV/S ratio is at an astronomical 70 now. do you think we're in a bubble now? I think the answer is yes. I'd be a fool if I don't sell and the price get slashed in half remember it's a pharma company and anything can happen.

offering at 71
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on May 23, 2019

they're gonna issue more stocks at $71 to the public. I think this means the price should stay above 71. look like a good time to buy around this price.

By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on May 11, 2019

GH forms a Morning doji star like pattern today. Regardless of what happened before yesterday this is a buy for the short and medium term. The earnings call is quite optimistic it says the revenue was up 120% yoy also the earning also beat the estimate. The guidance is also raised. This looks like a solid buy even when it’s up 20%. Visit my profile to find out more stocks like this before it breaks out.

bearish Marubozu day
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on May 09, 2019

Guardant forms a bearish marubozu today and it also looks like a evening star. This is not a good sign before tomorrow's earnings call. I'd be cautious about trading this thing.

the technicals looks very good
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 98   
   on Feb 14, 2019

A morning star formed a few days ago. Today's breakout also showed some volume. The chart has been really strong since the IPO and you can barely see a dip around the last December crash. Curious to setup a small position and see how it goes for a few days.