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Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd
(NYSE MKT:APT)
Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd

Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets a range of disposable protective apparel, infection control, and building supply products in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Disposable Protective Apparel and Building Supply. The Disposable Protective Apparel segment provides shoe covers, bouffant caps, coveralls, frocks, lab coats, and gowns, hoods, as well...
Founded: 1983
Full Time Employees: 115
CEO: Lloyd Hoffman  (Jan 2016~)
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Building Products & Equipment
Stock price: $4.12 (+1.73%)
Trading Coronavirus
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on Mar 01, 2020

There's a big news in the past few weeks - coronavirus.

News and videos are coming out from Wuhan everyday since end of January and things seem to be really bad. People are lining up in front of hospitals and the city is running out of hearses and body bags. People in neighboring countries are on high alert and wear masks wherever they go.

You can't take it for granted when a virus cause the entire city of Wuhan to lockdown. This means the virus is going to have bad impacts and I was convinced the virus would eventually hit Toronto, which is where I live. So maybe I have to prepare for an outbreak as well.

I went to Walmart and Shoppers around late Jan and I couldn't find the masks anywhere. They're all sold out. So it's unfortunate that I don't have too many masks left in my storage.

This also convinced me that buying facial masks manufacturer in a potential outbreak might be a good idea. Some of my friends mentioned $APT to me. It's a company that specializes in making facial masks and related medical devices. Their financials are also ok. It's a solid company with p/e ratio around 15 before the price breakout and even when it's up 50% - 100% the p/e ratio is still reasonable. if you have an outbreak you'd need to wear masks for many reasons.

I bought this around Jan 29 around 5.x.

APT is something I really don't understand. And everyday I was looking at APT to move sideways. And the big / ask spread is so big no one is trading it and the spread can get up to 2-3%. Also in the next 20 days I was convinced by world media that the outbreak is contained in China and is probably not gonna happen in the US so I sold out this position around Feb 12 around $5.

And a few days ago it jumped all of a sudden and within 3 days this is already trading around $40 USD. What I don't understand is how is it not moving at all in the past 20 days. Is it all the media is so manipulated that they don't tell you the truth? Or is it just lack of experience that I am not able to hold it a bit longer. Maybe it's a bit of both.

I am already away from $APT now but would like to observe how this one would play out during this coronavirus outbreak.

There also seem to be a few other coronavirus betting proxy during an outbreak. Zoom is one great example. It went up 30% in Feb. It's reasonable because when you have an outbreak and cannot go to work you'd use video conference tools like Zoom more than before. And according to them the number of users they acquired in the first 2 months in 2020 is greater than the total users they acquired in 2019. So you'd expect them to have a great year ahead.

Same thing for Netflix and Slack. If you cannot go out to work then you would spend a lot of time watching movies or chatting with your colleagues remotely. So chances are the services would benefit from a potential outbreak.

So there are safer investments like this during a potential market downturn compare to others. If you can protect your capital during a market crash like this than the chances of you being financially good would increase long term.

$ZM $NFLX $WORK


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Coronavirus and short China ETF could be the trade of the year.
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on Feb 02, 2020

Coronavirus seems to be causing wreak havoc in China right now. But people in North America don't seem to be concerned.

The information from the Chinese official shows the confirmed cases is around 15,000 and death are around 300 as of today (2020-02-02). But when the local governments say on their social media they're running out of hearses and body bags, and the crematorium started to run 24-7 the stories simply don't add up.

There are around 70 funeral parlors in Wuhan. And there are 224 coronavirus deaths in Wuhan currently that's coronavirus related. This means each funeral parlor would get 3-4 extra deaths each since the outbreak. For a city over 11m people that seems like exactly why you need to run the crematorium non-stop NOT.

There's a thing in China called Wei-wun. This means you would hide the bad information from the public so that their people have a less chance to destabilize the government. What they usually do is they would lower the casualty number in disasters to an agreed-upon number by the central government, so people think this country is doing okay. Also they censor your posts and chat histories and those information can be used against you. So you can't post anything that's against the government, or you might be in trouble. You could be taken away for education, which they claim is different from going to jail, like the first 8 doctors did when they first warned people on social media about an unknown virus outbreak in Wuhan that's causing issues in late December and early January. They were jailed for spreading the rumors but later released after they have done proper education after the outbreak.

In terms of the lower casualty numbers, for example, different hospitals and regions would have different quotas for deaths and confirmed cases. If you are sick because of the coronavirus but the hospitals are running out of quota then you would not be classified as a confirmed case. And when you die, you would not be counted toward a coronavirus related death but only to some unknown lung problems. So I would be cautious to use those numbers to access how bad the virus could make an impact outside of China.

There are lots of video footages showing you the numbers from the government are simply incorrect. It's up to you to decide if those video footages are real or not.

https://twitter.com/MgOqkzLBRPLCHyN

Also, a lot of countries are evacuating their citizens from Wuhan. And the percentage of infected people is high. For example, the first German evaluation flight has 2 confirmed cases out of around 130 passengers. Also, the first Japanese evaluation flight has 3 confirmed cases among its' 200 passengers. Similar story for the first Korean evaluation flight they have 18 suspected cases among their 368 passengers. So far the statistics show around 1-2% of people on the flights are infected. If you use 1-2% to estimate the number of people infected in Wuhan, you will get a confirmed case of around 100000 to 200000 people out of its' 11 million residents, which is scary.

What is worse is, among its 11 million residents, 5 million people have already traveled out of the province to other cities for the Chinese New Year. If 1% of the 5 million people are infected you would have 50,000 infected people running around the city.

This is why you would see cities after cities gets blocked after Wuhan. And my guess is this could be a trend extending well over February.

Also there are cases of super-spreaders that they do not have symptoms but can infect people. Japan has also confirmed this is the case when a few people was originally examined with negative results turned out to be positive a few days later even without any symptoms. And since the hibernation is currently estimated to be 5.8 days (varies from 2 - 14 days) if this is the case I don't know how you can stop the disease from spreading.

There are also a few articles telling you how likely the virus could spread. They have estimated the R0 number to be somewhere between 2.x-3.x. R0 means how many people you can infect when you have the virus. An R0 number smaller than 1 means the virus would shrink and disappear eventually. A R0 number is greater than 1 means the virus could spread. A high R0 means you can spread this disease very fast. This means if the actual R0 is 2 then you're looking at something that can be contained. But as R0 gets higher you could see this disease getting out of control.

So to stay away from getting infected you might need masks. Many of China's neighboring countries has already take measures to distribute masks. People are wearing masks in public places. It's even hard to buy masks in many countries in Asia.

You might also look into what companies can make vaccines that can cure this SARS-like virus. There are speculations like NanoViricides or Gilead can provide cures for this diseases. And even when this is only speculation the stocks of NanoViricides has already gone up 600%.

The impact of the virus could be especially bad for China. They have postponed their school to start at a much later date, and they restricted their private sector business to start no earlier than Feb 8 - 11 in a lot of cities. According to experts there there would be a peak in the outbreak in early February so we'll see if the dates could be further postponed. So uncertainty might be good for short China ETFs like YANG or CHAD.

In theory you can stop the country running for, say, 14 days and wait for people with symptoms to show up and get cured. But there would be still a number of people with diseases with higher hibernation days going undetected and when they go back to work they would still be infecting people around them. So in my opinion their economy is done at least for the year.

In this regard, buying $CHAD or $YANG seem like the most reasonable thing to do. Also buying some vaccines and masks also seem very reasonable. We'll see in a few days whether or not wearing a mask would be necessary in places outside of China. Currently there are confirmed cases in India, Africa, South East Asia where hygiene conditions are considered poor. Let's hope they're isolated cases and law of large numbers doesn't apply for once in our life.

Sources:

https://fortune.com/2020/01/30/wuhan-coronavirus-transmission/

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japan-confirms-three-more-citizens-evacuated-from-wuhan-test-positive-for-coronavirus

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2oSuZpg8_7PLy8t_5UMPttclI2C9vJp9omtZL-7SfPMIf5AG2RvVutrfc#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

short $NNVC $YANG $APT $CODX $AHPI $CHAD


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Coronavirus-related stocks up again as contagion spreads
By: ssmlee04 Community Lead :))   💬 97   
   on Jan 27, 2020

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3534569-coronavirus-related-stocks-up-again-contagion-spreads

The probability of a large tail event is not high. But when it happens you would be hugely rewards. Looks like the Coronavirus is on its' way to becoming one of those events. We will see. $NNVC $AHPI $APT


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